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Prediction for CME (2021-07-27T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-07-27T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17401/-1
CME Note: The source is an eruption from AR 2849 (~S15E25) in AIA 193, AIA 304, and EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-07-27T01:51Z, with darkening and bright post-eruptive arcades. It is associated with the long duration B1.9 class flare peaking at 2021-07-27T02:13Z
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-30T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CMEAnalysis/17402/4

Note that this CME was simulated together with the 2021-07-26T16:48Z CME, which is predicted to give Earth a glancing blow and have a minor impact at STEREO A a little earlier. 

Model Inputs:
2021-07-24T00:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-46.0, Lat.=-3.0, Speed=600.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2021-07-24T05:53Z
2021-07-23T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-78.0, Lat.=-8.0, Speed=514.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2021-07-24T07:17Z

2021-07-27T03:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis:
Speed (km/s): 420.0
Speed measured at height (Rs): 8.0
Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ): -25.0/-2.0
Half Angular Width (degree): 33.0
Minor Half-width (degree): None Entered
Tilt (degree): None Entered
Time@21.5: 2021-07-27T11:20Z

Model Output:
Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-07-30T13:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A minor impact arrival time 2021-07-30T10:00Z

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-pdyn.gif

Timelines
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif

Inner Planets links:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gi
Inner Planet Timelines
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210726_235100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 66.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-07-27T18:50Z

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